October 15, 2006

The NFL is in full swing with week 5 now behind us. Not only is it the number one wagered pro sport in North America, but apart from the Super Bowl game itself, the MNF tilt, is the next biggest wagered on game in NFL, in terms of turnover of money during any given season.
You would think that the books, with this one specific national televised game each week, would have their lines at their sharpest. That is rarely the case, since the books cater to their highest ratio of public money on Mondays. With that said they know public loves to eat chalk.

The underdog, especially the home dog, has performed better playing on Monday than it does on Sundays. Going as far back as 1980, home dogs on Monday Night have gone 73-51 ATS. Don’t for one minute think that this is a solid wagering opportunity as over the last 12 years you would have lost money blindly playing the spread on these home puppies. Since 1994, home dogs are 26-28-1 ATS and 24-31 SU.

Despite home dogs performing adequately, Monday Night double digit favorites have performed better than what is perceived as they are 25-4 against the moneyline and 19-10 ATS since 1989. So it seems even when the books try to out smart the regular guy on the street, they are in the minus category.

Final Monday Night Notes & Trends: Home dogs when they are matched up against an opponent off a double digit win are 39-21 ATS. Monday night road teams off a 7 or more point SU home win are 18-43 ATS the last 61 tries.

Remember these above situations are not to be used as stand alone reason to wager on any sporting event, and should only be used as another tool in the overall selection process.